Destroying agencies that collect statistics is a "feature", not a bug.
Why deal with unemployment, declining GDP, etc when you can just shut down the agency figuring out how many people are unemployed and where the GDP is going?
Better yet, outsource it to the guy who gave you $10M in campaign donations or bought your crypto coins and then wink-nodded at you, and give him a $50M contract to do something the feds were doing for $20M - and he lies to make you look better. Win-win-win...
In the middle of Covid, the Federal Reserve changed the definition of M2 money supply at the exact moment of the largest increase in the money supply to date for unknown reasons. It made all comparisons between pre- and post-change numbers difficult, probably a coincidence.
USG is an independent organism that is under attack and it is fighting back however it can. Remember, it's always looking out for itself, not for you.
I’ve found the following 2020 note about a change to M1 definition (not M2) and which didn’t make M1 supply look smaller but larger.
I think you should back up your claim with a reliable source.
> First Monthly H.6 Statistical Release
As announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged
That exactly supports what I was saying. The definition change was a bureaucratic immune response, allowing plausible deniability around unfavorable comparisons.
If an everyman were to look at FRED and see an M1 hockey stick, he may reasonably think “look at all this money they’re printing!”
A fact checker would point out the everyman’s graph is misleading: it includes a definition change which inflates recent values.
But the money printing was actually unprecedented, and the fake graph told you more of the truth than the factcheck.
FUD / Citation required. Quick google search reveals you are incorrect (components of M2 shifted, and portions moved between M1 and M2, but M1 is a subset of M2, so there is no significant change to total M2 supply before and after).
Also Federal Reserve is not part of the US Government.
> Also Federal Reserve is not part of the US Government.
Well, they seem to get along pretty well in any case :).
They changed the m1 definition in the middle of the largest m1 increase in history. It messed up all the graphs and you couldn’t get a sense of the scale of the printing.
> Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
> Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
EDIT: Of course since M1 is what really changed, M2 is effectively the same.
The comment you replied to was correct, as M1 was expanded to include savings deposits.
Here's a link to a Q&A about the change, and the relevant explanation.
"3. Why are savings deposits being recognized on the H.6 statistical release as a transaction account?
Posted: 12/17/2020
A. As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board of Governors reduced reserve requirement ratios on net transaction accounts to 0 percent, effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions and rendered the regulatory distinction between reservable “transaction accounts” and nonreservable “savings deposits” unnecessary. On April 24, 2020, the Board removed this regulatory distinction by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This action resulted in savings deposits having the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts currently reported as “Other checkable deposits” on the H.6 statistical release.
To account for the change in their liquidity characteristics, savings deposits will be recognized as a type of transaction account on the H.6 statistical release"
So explaining M2 in terms of M1 only works if you include those definition in the equation. Otherwise it will falsely look like M2 fell by the amount that M1 rose.
Letting the LLM explain it more clearly than I can:
What exactly changed according to the FRED definition?
Before May 2020:
M2 included:
M1 (currency in circulation + checking accounts + other transaction accounts)
Savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts, MMDAs)
Small-denomination time deposits (under $100,000, excluding IRA and Keogh balances)
Retail money market mutual fund balances (excluding IRA and Keogh balances)
Thus, M2 = M1 + Savings deposits (including MMDAs) + Small time deposits + Retail MMFs.
After May 2020:
M1 was expanded to include savings deposits and money market deposit accounts (previously, savings and MMDAs were NOT part of M1; they were only part of M2).
Since savings and MMDAs moved into M1, the definition of M2 no longer needs to separately add these categories—they are already captured within M1.
Thus, after May 2020, the Fed simplified the definition to:
M1 itself was significantly expanded (now including savings and money market deposits), causing M1 to spike substantially overnight.
M2 overall did NOT lose or gain any category. It still includes all the exact same accounts and balances. It simply shifted the categorization of savings deposits and MMDAs into M1, so these no longer need separate listing when describing M2.
Fair enough. I'm pretty sure OP meant M1. My comment reads more like a "well akshually" than a useful point (since technically M2 changed, but not in a meaningful way).
the re-definition seems fairly early in COVID (May 2020) rather than "In the middle of Covid" and appears to only drop savings deposits. [1]
> Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus
(1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts);
(2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and
(3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
> Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus
(1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and
(2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
isn't it more accurate to point to M1 which increased substantially?
Name Jan 2021 Dec 2020 Jan 2020 Units
M1 18,063.1 17,803.0 3,977.6 Billions of Dollars
M2 19,335.0 19,110.3 15,401.3 Billions of Dollars
M1 was also re-defined to move savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) from M2 to M1.
> Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
> Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
You own a Tesla and almost all of your comments are straight from the alt-right grift machine. I’m guessing you also own Tesla stock and have a financial interest in preventing negative opinions of Musk. How’s your 401k doing right now, champ?
"He told his fellow Russians in his entourage that if their people, who often must wait in line for most goods, saw the conditions of U.S. supermarkets, "there would be a revolution.""
Given how woefully behind American healthcare and education and retirement is, it's quite remarkable Americans don't understand how poor they are.
This definitely won’t be representative of the full spectrum of health care, but it’s what I found after a quick search. I wouldn’t call it woefully behind, but definitely not winning any medals anytime soon.
It's one thing to say that someone who lives far away isn't as well off as they claim to be and another to say that someone's retirement account hasn't gone down.
While all administrations hide evidence, conservative/republican presidents do it pretty openly. Bush and 9/11 was a great example. I dont know of too many bigger lies/coverups than the information surrounding 9/11 and the "war on terror".
The issue is that something like 1/3rd of americans will eagerly believe anything if it's directed towards the right victims or their party says it.
The article covers many cases that predate the current administration. I'm not contesting your point, but I think TFA is about a bipartisan failure to keep federal data collection infrastructure up to date.
Pretty much all his takes are wrong. What I find most absurd is how he managed to convince everyone that he is a genius. Ashley Vance extolled his wisdom, and so did Tim Urban.
Why deal with unemployment, declining GDP, etc when you can just shut down the agency figuring out how many people are unemployed and where the GDP is going?
Better yet, outsource it to the guy who gave you $10M in campaign donations or bought your crypto coins and then wink-nodded at you, and give him a $50M contract to do something the feds were doing for $20M - and he lies to make you look better. Win-win-win...
USG is an independent organism that is under attack and it is fighting back however it can. Remember, it's always looking out for itself, not for you.
I think you should back up your claim with a reliable source.
> First Monthly H.6 Statistical Release As announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged
Source — https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html
If an everyman were to look at FRED and see an M1 hockey stick, he may reasonably think “look at all this money they’re printing!”
A fact checker would point out the everyman’s graph is misleading: it includes a definition change which inflates recent values.
But the money printing was actually unprecedented, and the fake graph told you more of the truth than the factcheck.
Also Federal Reserve is not part of the US Government.
Well, they seem to get along pretty well in any case :).
They changed the m1 definition in the middle of the largest m1 increase in history. It messed up all the graphs and you couldn’t get a sense of the scale of the printing.
> Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
> Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
EDIT: Of course since M1 is what really changed, M2 is effectively the same.
Here's a link to a Q&A about the change, and the relevant explanation.
"3. Why are savings deposits being recognized on the H.6 statistical release as a transaction account? Posted: 12/17/2020
A. As announced on March 15, 2020, the Board of Governors reduced reserve requirement ratios on net transaction accounts to 0 percent, effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions and rendered the regulatory distinction between reservable “transaction accounts” and nonreservable “savings deposits” unnecessary. On April 24, 2020, the Board removed this regulatory distinction by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This action resulted in savings deposits having the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts currently reported as “Other checkable deposits” on the H.6 statistical release.
To account for the change in their liquidity characteristics, savings deposits will be recognized as a type of transaction account on the H.6 statistical release"
So explaining M2 in terms of M1 only works if you include those definition in the equation. Otherwise it will falsely look like M2 fell by the amount that M1 rose.
What exactly changed according to the FRED definition? Before May 2020: M2 included: M1 (currency in circulation + checking accounts + other transaction accounts) Savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts, MMDAs) Small-denomination time deposits (under $100,000, excluding IRA and Keogh balances) Retail money market mutual fund balances (excluding IRA and Keogh balances) Thus, M2 = M1 + Savings deposits (including MMDAs) + Small time deposits + Retail MMFs.
After May 2020: M1 was expanded to include savings deposits and money market deposit accounts (previously, savings and MMDAs were NOT part of M1; they were only part of M2). Since savings and MMDAs moved into M1, the definition of M2 no longer needs to separately add these categories—they are already captured within M1. Thus, after May 2020, the Fed simplified the definition to:
M2 = (New) M1 + Small-denomination time deposits + Retail MMFs
But importantly, note the following:
M1 itself was significantly expanded (now including savings and money market deposits), causing M1 to spike substantially overnight.
M2 overall did NOT lose or gain any category. It still includes all the exact same accounts and balances. It simply shifted the categorization of savings deposits and MMDAs into M1, so these no longer need separate listing when describing M2.
Anyway, I think we understand each other.
> Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs.
> Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
isn't it more accurate to point to M1 which increased substantially?
Name Jan 2021 Dec 2020 Jan 2020 Units
M1 18,063.1 17,803.0 3,977.6 Billions of Dollars
M2 19,335.0 19,110.3 15,401.3 Billions of Dollars
M1 was also re-defined to move savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) from M2 to M1.
> Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
> Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
(rm reddit content)
The story of Yeltsin visiting an American grocery store comes to mind:
https://www.chron.com/neighborhood/bayarea/news/article/When...
"He told his fellow Russians in his entourage that if their people, who often must wait in line for most goods, saw the conditions of U.S. supermarkets, "there would be a revolution.""
Given how woefully behind American healthcare and education and retirement is, it's quite remarkable Americans don't understand how poor they are.
Infant mortality rate is behind 53 countries: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/infant-mortalit...
This definitely won’t be representative of the full spectrum of health care, but it’s what I found after a quick search. I wouldn’t call it woefully behind, but definitely not winning any medals anytime soon.
48th in life expectancy.
29th in retirement security.
24th in science education.
38th in math.
36th in the Gini index.
27th in social mobility.
This is why U S A chants are always so cringe.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK571929/
Spending per capita is a disaster:
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-...
Retirement ranking 29 of 48 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/10/16/her...
You're welcome to participate in the conversation beyond just sea lion king.
https://www.voanews.com/amp/covid-19-pandemic_trump-if-we-st...
The issue is that something like 1/3rd of americans will eagerly believe anything if it's directed towards the right victims or their party says it.
There was an investment gap of 2.6 trillion dollars under Biden. Expect that gap to increase and see way more stuff collapse in the coming decades.
It is absolutely unbelievable that the richest tech exec in the history of the world and ex-CEO of PayPal doesn't know what SQL is.