Tech valuations are back to pre-AI boom levels

(apollo.com)

94 points | by akyuu 2 hours ago

5 comments

  • kaycebasques 2 hours ago
    Aside: why are Alphabet and Meta bucketed into the Communications sector rather than the IT one? Meta kinda makes sense, but Alphabet much less so.

    Are there any other notable IT companies that aren't actually part of the S&P500 IT sector?

    Edit: Apparently this happened in 2018 and is known as the de-FAANGing of the IT sector. I.e. FAANG used to all be lumped in a single sector. ^SPX tried to redistribute to spread the companies across different sectors. AMZN is another notable company now outside of IT sector. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communication_services_sector_...

    • trueno 1 hour ago
      good point, i think it'd be valuable to bring in more of these companies to this chart. with it narrowly scoped here it's perhaps (likely) not telling the full story. i would imagine theres plenty of ballooned valuations still because of AI
      • kaycebasques 1 hour ago
        This also means that the pre-2018 index had a fundamentally different portfolio of companies. So comparing today to anything pre-2018 is apples-to-oranges

        I recall that there's an "extended tech" ETF that does a pretty good job of actually capturing the whole IT universe. Pretty sure I'm thinking of IGM: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-ame...

        • trueno 1 hour ago
          > This also means that the pre-2018 index had a fundamentally different portfolio of companies

          o true. this is a classic reporting/analytics yoy comparison type blunder, that actually makes graph in OP kind of meaningless. much more surgical comparison is needed here. now i cant help but chuckle at the total absolute that is the headline lol. grab all "IT flavored" companies that exist today, find the ones that existed then, then compare valuations between those two periods. perhaps ignore the S&P "IT" classification entirely since that groupings definition is apparently now just a moving target between 2018 & now :shrug:

          > Pretty sure I'm thinking of IGM:

          actually really cool thanks for putting this on my radar

        • techkid 1 hour ago
          [dead]
  • sfblah 2 hours ago
    Must be using some strange definition for tech or valuations, because last I'd heard tech was some huge percentage of the S&P 500, and the index has dropped like 10% from its ATH.
    • jjmarr 2 hours ago
      The definition is the first sentence of the post:

      > The chart below compares the forward P/E ratios for the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Information Technology sector.

      > Tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x, and we are back at levels last seen before the AI boom began

      Forward PE is the ratio of stock price to anticipated earnings.

      If it's higher, then investors are predicting future growth in a company.

  • m101 2 hours ago
    Except they are fundamentally different companies now. Now they have no free cash flow and they are extremely capital intensive industrial businesses.

    Another note is that this is on forward earnings. What may have just happened is analyst expectations on forward earnings have caught up what markets prices earlier. Forward earnings generally lag pricing, this happens on the way up, and on the way down..

    • techkid 1 hour ago
      The post defines it clearly: S&P 500 Information Technology sector. That excludes Meta, Alphabet, Amazon – which were moved to Communications and Consumer Discretionary. So the “tech” we’re looking at is more traditional software and hardware (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.).
  • outside1234 45 minutes ago
    Someone needs to tell OpenAI and SpaceX that
  • tamimio 1 hour ago
    AI isn’t a hype anymore, average non technical people hate AI and would rather not to interact with, and tech companies started to realize that AI won’t be the solution for all of their issues, but they still used it as a scapegoat to lower wages regardless. I even noticed now companies are back to ~2022 time in hiring either FT or consultation, from my experience.

    So hopefully soon we will have dirt cheap prices for ram and other chips.

    • aduwah 54 minutes ago
      In the meanwhile my big bad corp measures AI usage as a performance KPI
      • deadbabe 38 minutes ago
        That’s easy to game. You just burn tokens.
      • shimman 37 minutes ago
        No one said corporations were smart or self preserving, they're just a money vein for the elites to suck on until they get swatted away.