13 comments

  • CSMastermind 1 hour ago
    It's worth noting that some prediction URLs, for instance: https://longbets.org/6/ are offline.

    The original long bet was whether or not computers could pass the turing test by 2029: https://longbets.org/1/

    You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities.

    https://longbets.org/9/ is another interesting one depending on whether you think covid leaked from a lab or not.

    • mmahemoff 1 minute ago
      Wayback shows #6 as "By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks."

      It was removed early 2011. Is this what happens when they can't decide on who won?

    • hahahaa 7 minutes ago
      By 2029 things will be different. Humans will have learned to talk like LLMs.
    • eru 40 minutes ago
      > You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities.

      Yes, especially if you use the original adversarial setup with three simultaneous participants (judge, two candidates) as described in Turing's original paper.

      However, I'm not quite sure how long even that one will last.

    • andai 48 minutes ago
      There was a paper a while ago, where they found a strategy for GPT beating humans on the Turing test 2/3rds of the time.

      They just prompted it to talk the way a 13 year old girl texts.

      (Also they prompted it to pretend not to know anything about anything.)

      • 9dev 18 minutes ago
        Most of the LLM tells we usually recognise are due to their heavy attunement to role playing a "helpful assistant" with a knack for correct typography.

        If you used a smaller corpus, followed a different kind of fine tuning routine with rather normal conversation patterns, and wrote a different base prompt, I don’t see why it shouldn’t be possible to come up with a very particular personality, so to speak.

    • sublinear 1 hour ago
      > You'd think that LLMs fulfill this, but I do wonder if a clever human could still discern between them given their particularities.

      You don't even have to be that clever. We've all tried using it for work. They fail.

      In the first place, the Turing test was always a loosely defined thought experiment. I suppose it's still serving that purpose, but at least half of HN takes it way too seriously. It's absolutely not proof of <engagementbait> endorsed by Alan Turing himself.

      • frotaur 1 hour ago
        I think if you trained an LLM specifically for the purpose of passing the Turing test (instead of being helpful, harmful, and so on), its likely it would pass it.

        You would have to train it/finetune it on a couple hundred of 'humans chatting in the context of a Turing test'.

        • 9dev 14 minutes ago
          That would not really pass the test in spirit, I think. Passing must be something that falls out as a consequence of being a good chatbot, not the other way around.

          However such good conversational agents would still have benefits, and i would be curious how far the approach of building a model that’s nice to talk to can take you, as opposed to the current generation of all-knowledgable helpful assistants.

        • munch117 36 minutes ago
          I think you are absolutely right.

          The big problem with the Turing test always was that it doesn't take into account adversarial designs. They had those chatbot contests about a decade ago, where the chatbots would regularly pass the turing test, not because the bots were intelligent, but because they were packed with rhetorical tricks designed to avoid saying anything of substance.

          By any meaningful measure, today's LLM's pass the Turing test. Except we may need to lobotomize them for the deception to work.

        • sublinear 39 minutes ago
          I'd like to see an honest attempt at that.

          What's more interesting are the types of humans that might fail the Turing test. Maybe to discourage the failure of real humans, there could be consequences outside the context of the test.

          That is, most people accused of being a computer would crack and start pleading their humanity, but some sociopaths might not. I then wonder how many of them overlap with those so invested in abusing the premise of the Turing test.

          It really is a fun thought experiment when you spice it up enough.

      • nxpnsv 48 minutes ago
        Mannerisms aside, they are easy to spot from having inhuman amounts of trivia knowledge
        • msdz 42 minutes ago
          Couldn’t you instruct them to not display as much knowledge for a test situation…?
      • jfengel 39 minutes ago
        It won't fool all of the people all of the time. But it succeeds often enough to pass the loose definition. It does many things that we called "AI complete" for decades.

        It is also clear that is is also not really aware, either. I think Turing would be tickled that we find ourselves in an intermediate state that he would not have imagined.

  • mg 2 hours ago
    It is actually pretty easy to keep alive URLs if there is a will to do so. Just have tests in place so you can't mess them up accidentally. And convert things that are not changing anymore to static html.

    One of my first web projects involved a music forum and I have been keeping the URLs alive for 24 years now:

    https://www.gnoosic.com/discussion/

    I feel like I owe it to the people who participated to keep it online forever. Also as a document of history.

    • vasco 2 hours ago
      It's not easy. Part of the instructions would need to contain things like "how to convince your boss to not just delete the old thing" and "what to do when the startup you worked for went bankrupt" among others. Most URLs don't disappear by mistake.
    • fragmede 1 hour ago
      Well, and pay registrar and hosting fees for 100 years, and then just hope the hosting company doesn't fold in the interim after your passing. The problem isn't "can you make sure it stays up while you're alive", the problem is, after you're gone, you're no longer there to keep the flame alive and there are no guarantees anyone else picks up the torch.
  • JoshTriplett 3 hours ago
    > entering the characters http://www.longbets.org/601 into the address bar of a web browser or command line tool (like curl)

    The part of this that's most likely to fail at some point is the "http://".

    • ludwik 3 hours ago
      In my mind, the part that is most likely to fail is "return an HTML document that still contains the following text." Nowadays, more and more "HTML documents" do not contain any content at all, just some JavaScript that is responsible for then fetching and displaying the content.
      • munch117 17 minutes ago
        If the text was returned using a staged process, whereby the server first returns an instruction (JavaScript), and the web browser then executes that instruction, which is what transfers the text, then that doesn't actually change anything. Those are just technical details of the transfer. You are viewing an HTML document on-screen; it makes no difference to this bet if it was returned to you by a different mechanism than originally conceived, since the bet doesn't specify any transfer mechanism, just that the URL was entered into a browser.
      • TeMPOraL 45 minutes ago
        You two have just spelled out a very specific bet. Care to put a wager on it? :)
      • bombcar 2 hours ago
        I used to be someone, man, I was a dreamer, a programmer, a man!

        Now I'm a human slave copying text from web browsers to chat windows to get around JS rendering bullshit.

        • andai 46 minutes ago
          The preferred term is meat proxy ;)
          • TeMPOraL 38 minutes ago
            That depends on which side of the JS rendering bullshit you're sitting. If you're on the serving side, yes.

            But I do the same as GP, just on the receiving side. That is, reaching out for help to baby eldritch entity, because that's healthier for my mind than dealing directly with the unspeakable horrors that half the websites are today. The industry has lost its collective mind in pursue of profit and control, and that was long before the thousand-mask wearing shoggoths became our daily consorts.

        • someguyiguess 2 hours ago
          One of those things is true
    • ywain 3 hours ago
      The detailed terms of the bet include this:

      > A 301 redirect from www.longbets.org/601 to a different URL containing that text would also fulfill those conditions.

      I assume this would cover the HTTP->HTTPS redirect scenario.

      • kijin 2 hours ago
        I think the parent is referring to the possibility that one day, browsers might put up a blanket security warning for HTTP URLs instead of following redirects. Or they might try to be a little too clever with HTTPS upgrades.

        In particular, the automatic upgrade feature in modern browsers is based on several heuristics rather than explicit configuration like HSTS, so there's always a bit of room for breakage there. For example, they don't even check if the server returns a 301 redirect, which can be problematic if the server wants to redirect to HTTPS on a different host/port or make some changes to the path.

        • tredre3 1 hour ago
          > Or they might try to be a little too clever with HTTPS upgrades.

          They're not going to get any cleverer than they are now. In October we'll finally be done with heuristics or central databses of https-first websites used by the various browsers or the half a dozen of headers that you must dance around to get the upgrade to work securely and reliably. They will just default to https first.

          https://blog.google/security/https-by-defau/

          Yes this is about Chrome, but all others will follow.

      • oofbey 2 hours ago
        Yeah that was a clever bit of foresight there.
  • matsemann 2 hours ago
    At a certain bet size it would almost be self-fulfilling, heh, as one side would be very incentivized to keep at least that url working (buying the domain + hosting it if the page were to die)
    • 9dev 11 minutes ago
      Someone should do a long bet on the continuous existence of longbets.com
  • firefoxd 2 hours ago
    One thing I've done is include my redirect rules with the web application. So my links continue to work even when I change them and forget them.

    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46139686

    • latexr 9 minutes ago
      I was expecting some kind of system that would follow the pages automatically without you having to do extra work when changing the URL (“continue to work even when I change them and forget them”) but it looks like you still add the redirects manually?

      That’s more than most will do, sure, but it doesn’t seem like it saves you from a broken link if you forget to add a specific redirect or miss it during a mass format change. Am I missing something?

  • vvoyer 3 hours ago
    Amazing that Disqus comments are still live for this page. More impressive even than the website itself being live.
    • jamiek88 41 minutes ago
      I really liked disqus back in the day. When I was in my kinda cringey singularity phase, Kurzweil and all that. Tracking comments across similar blogs with the same people was handy.
    • DonHopkins 1 hour ago
      I'm grateful the comments are still there, since they reminded me to get back in touch with my old friend Craig Hubley!
  • sucuri2 1 hour ago
    Anyway to find all bets expiring this year? it will be interesting to see. Could not find a way to search for it there.
  • cortesoft 1 hour ago
    This is basically a bet on if you think longbets is going to be around.
  • RinatNabiev 1 hour ago
    "Cool URIs don't change" is still the ideal. 301 redirects are the pragmatic reality. Both are right in different ways.
  • RinatNabiev 1 hour ago
    The fact that this bet page itself still exists is a win for both sides. Internet Archive gets $1000 either way, so we all win.
  • mike_d 2 hours ago
    I'm not sure how it played out in 2011, but as of now it looks like the win condition hinges on the redirect.

    For the heck of it I confirmed "http://www.longbets.org/601" does in fact result in a 301 redirect to "https://longbets.org/601/". I suspected they might have used a 302.

  • EGreg 3 hours ago
    It's all a matter of whether someone is willing to pay for the hosting.

    Which is not, in my opinion, how things should be hosted on the Web.

    Freenet had a different approach, even back in the early days (two decades ago). I interviewed Ian Clarke about it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWrRqUkJpMQ

    I wrote about it for years: https://community.intercoin.app/t/who-pays-for-storage-nfts-...

    And recently I built Safecloud to be different: https://safebots.github.io/Safecloud/

    • hypfer 2 hours ago
      On HN, a TLDR would be helpful, because just clicking your links would potentially mean falling for shilling of ones own side-hustle.

      I bet there's complexity to the topic, but I am sure you could put it into a few words instead of just leaving a hook for others to click on.

      • tredre3 1 hour ago
        I know nothing of Safecloud, but freenet failed for a very valid reasons:

        1. Data retention isn't infinite. If the source disappears from the network, peers will prune it shortly. This is exponentially true in our multimedia-heavy world.

        2. Despite 1, if you actually want to delete something you published, you can't. Absolutists will see this as a good thing. Normal people will see this as a problem.

        3. Peer-to-peer doesn't work in a mobile-first world, and not enough people will host nodes as a hobby. If all website publishers/hosters have to host a node, then we're just back to the current model but with extra steps.

        • 9dev 7 minutes ago
          Is the p2p problem really still one in our world that is mobile first, but also has ubiquitous internet connectivity pretty much everywhere? I’m almost sure I could host my website from my phone and have at least 99.5% percent of uptime.
        • bblb 1 hour ago
          Closed-garden mobile-first tech feudalism lobotimized the Internet. I remember trying out the Freenets, I2Ps, and whatnot in the 90's. Too cumbersome nerdy tools to use for anything actually worthwhile. It was born in the idealized world village of the 90's Internet. Maybe real life doesn't work like that, and the lobotimized centralized tech will eventually win.
  • rowanadeyemi 43 minutes ago
    [flagged]